Friends, your Army Black Knights have arguably their most important game of the season to date this weekend. They’ll take on the Air Force Falcons in a game that’s important not only for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy series and because it’s a service academy rivalry game but also because both of these teams badly need another win to qualify for the postseason. With a win this weekend, the Black Knights will again get back to .500. At 4-4, the team would then need just two wins in their next three contests to earn a bowl berth. Air Force is in a similar situation. Whichever team loses this weekend will need to win out to get to a bowl game.
This Air Force team has an outstanding offense but a young, developmental defense. With that, we’ve got three Keys to Victory over the Falcons.
Wheels up to Colorado for a CIC matchup. pic.twitter.com/4FsT1tFNw8
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) October 30, 2025
Keys to Victory
1. Tackle
QB Liam Szarka leads the Air Force rushing attack, and he’s got a lot of weapons around him. Thus, Army’s defense cannot afford to key specifically on just Szarka. The Zoomies have a stable of fullbacks, slotbacks, and even a wide receiver, all of whom can make it happen either on the ground or through the air. With this in mind, the Black Knights need to play assignment defense with their front seven and stay back in their secondary, giving up quick outs as necessary to avoid getting beat over the top. As we’ve seen all season, this works fine so long as Army can stop the run. However, they’ll only stop the run if they play gap-sound and MAKE GOOD TACKLES.
Coach Monken has talked about this several times this season. The Black Knights have had guys in position to make tackles on defense in every game. In the games in which the Black Knights have played well, they’ve made those tackles. We saw this at K-State, and we even saw it against Tulane despite the loss. But this Army Team lost to North Texas in its worst tackling game of the year despite their offense successfully turning that contest into a track meet.
If Army’s defense tackles well, the Black Knights will probably win this game. If the defense misses a ton of tackles, Air Force will walk out with this one in the bag.
2. Dominate Along the Offensive Line
Though they got off to a somewhat slow start, Army’s offensive line has slowly rounded into form over the past few weeks. We watched them push Tulane’s gigantic D-Line off the ball repeatedly two weeks ago, and now they’re coming into a game against an unheralded defense with exactly one playmaking linebacker and a young secondary. Air Force’s best D-Lineman has just six tackles and one sack for all of five yards. The Black Knights should be able to make this work.
Army can win this game on offense by winning at the point of attack. They need to get that good push, get their linemen up to the second level, and use that space to get their big fullbacks one-on-one against this questionable Zoomie secondary.
The Black Knights do not need to hurry this week. They can afford to slowly grind their way down the field. In fact, that’s probably preferable given the explosiveness of this Zoomie offense. However, if Army can win at the line of scrimmage repeatedly when they have the ball, they’ll be able to run at will, run the clock, and score when they get into the red zone. If they do that, they will win this game.
3. Force Mistakes, Don’t Make Them
Service academy games often come down to turnovers. Air Force lost at Navy because they turned the ball over on a drive that should’ve given them the lead late in the fourth quarter. Similarly, Army lost to Tarleton State and to North Texas because they gave the ball away needlessly in the course of otherwise good-looking drives.
The Black Knights have mostly gotten their turnover issues corrected since those early weeks. They’re not world-beaters, but they’ve been better about ball security, allowing their defense to get them back to even on total turnover margin for the season. By comparison, Air Force has neither been particularly good nor bad on turnover margin. They stand just behind the Black Knights on the year with one more turnover committed than forced.
These teams stand similarly with penalties. Army ranks second in the nation with an average of just 25 penalty yards/game. Air Force comes in at 19th with just under 40 penalty yards/game. But Air Force has the more explosive offense and can therefore overcome their own penalties easier than Army, whose offense has been consistent but plodding through much of this year.
Friends, Army wins this game the way they win every game — by playing precise, mistake free football. If the Black Knights can hold onto the football and avoid drive-killing penalties, they’ll have an excellent chance of getting this victory.
Finally Thoughts
Though these teams have played very different kinds of football this season, both SP+ and Massey predict a close game. ESPN’s SP+ system makes the game a pick’em. Massey likes the Black Knights by about four points, a small enough margin that only a fool would count on it to actually show up.
This is a service academy rivalry, so neither team will have a marked advantage in overall athleticism. Whichever team executes will win.
It’s that simple.
Your Need to Know heading into our CIC matchup on Saturday in Colorado!#GoArmy x #BeatAirForce pic.twitter.com/YxziXueHiS
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) October 29, 2025
Head Coach Jeff Monken should have his guys ready to play. We’ll see if they can get it done this weekend, sing second, and get on track to finish the rest of the season strong.
Go Army! Beat Air Force!!!
