It’s Air Force Week, friends. The Black Knights are playing at home in their third night game in a row against a team that will most likely start either its third or its fourth string quarterback. With that in mind, this is a game that Army really should win.
But can they? This will be a rivalry game against a team with an excellent rushing offense coming off a good-looking home win over a talented team from UConn. Oh, by the way, Army’s rushing defense has left quite a lot to be desired at times this season.
Can the Black Knights win? Let’s get into it.
Mission on Saturday night: ⚫️ WEAR BLACK ⚫️ #GoArmy #BeatAirForce https://t.co/2hUdMTzE38
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) November 3, 2026
Four Keys to Beating Air Force
Tackle
Though the Black Knights defense has improved since the La. Tech game, this is still a team that has missed somewhere between 150 and 200 tackles this season, costing them at least one game and maybe two. Worse, their performance in Tulsa put that game in jeopardy as well despite the team carrying a 14-point lead into the middle of the third quarter. The offense shares plenty of blame for the way that quarter played out, but the team as a whole still needed a miracle and a few heady plays to steal a hard-fought victory on the road.
The biggest issue heading into this weekend’s game comes from the reality that Army’s defense has given up an awful lot of rushing yardage this season, and now they have the second-best rushing team in the country coming for a visit. The Black Knights stand around middle of the pack on a yards per game basis, giving up a reasonable 152.4 yards per contest. However, that comes on 5.1 yards per carry and with plenty of explosive plays allowed off of simple busted coverages. They’ve got to get that under control this week, or they won’t stand a chance.
The good news is that while probable starting QB Kemper Hodges looked exceptionally good last week carrying the football, he looks a lot less comfortable making reads in the option and/or pitching the ball in space. If the Black Knights can stop the Quarterback Keeper, they’ll have an excellent chance to win this game. Fortunately, they should’ve seen that play plenty in their own scrimmage periods.
Get Turnovers
Though there’s no guarantee this week, the Zoomies still have a decided tendency to put the ball on the ground about once per game. This is not super surprising given that they’ve seen their first- and second-string quarterbacks both get hurt, especially given that their offense requires the quarterback to make reads in real time while pitching, throwing, or handing-off in unpredictable windows during each play.
We should expect this Air Force team to make a mistake or two during this weekend’s game. The Zoomies played clean at home last week against UConn, but they fumbled three times, losing two, and threw an interception at Wyoming the week prior. Moreover, the team as a whole has thrown four interceptions and lost three fumbles this season while Hodges, the Zoomies’ probable starter, has yet to complete a pass.
If Army can just stifle this offense and force Air Force out of their comfort zone the way Wyoming did, they’ll have a real opportunity this week. But again, that only happens if the Black Knights tackle. They have to stop the run first in order to put themselves in position to take advantage of turnovers.
Know before you go with our Gameday Guide! Information on parking, shuttles and activities leading into the 7:30 p.m. kickoff on Saturday against the Falcons. → https://t.co/7JQbRkkh68 #GoArmy https://t.co/MLfuVsGTq9
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) November 5, 2026
Play Four Full Quarters
Rob Robinson ran an analysis this week that said, bottom line, Army has been good in the first half of games this season, but they tend to lose the third quarter, and that has put games at risk this season. Save for their performances against Bryant and FAU, this team hasn’t been at all consistent in the third stanza this season, even when they’ve come back and gotten wins in the fourth.
To win this week, the Black Knights will need to play four full, consistent quarters. Their offense needs to play like the talented, veteran unit that they are, and their defense needs to play assignment sound and make good tackles. They can’t afford to allow bad plays when they lose their focus. If they have a bad third quarter this week, the Zoomies might very well take advantage, and this time, the Black Knights will have a hell of a time digging themselves out of the hole.
Like Army, this Air Force team knows how to defend the basic elements of this offense. Either Army plays consistently and grinds out a win, or they’re probably gonna get beat. They have the talent. Now they must find the consistency.
"I’m a student-athlete; a student first." For Army tight end Parker Poloskey, it’s always been that way. Full Story ⤵️ https://t.co/Zvbn5vwmCq
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) November 5, 2026
Finish with Touchdowns
If Army can drive the ball consistently on offense, play tackle football on defense, and take advantage of Zoomie mistakes, they’ll have a truly excellent chance to win this game. Assuming both teams play their brand of football, the team that can convert third downs, stay on the field, and finish drives with touchdowns will win this game. The game will turn on playing aggressive assignment football for four full quarters.
On the plus side, the Black Knights have been truly excellent in the red zone this season on offense. They currently rank 16th in the nation with 18 rushing touchdowns and 3 passing touchdowns. But then again, the Zoomies have a good red zone defense, while the Black Knights haven’t shown that. Air Force has the 37th-ranked red zone defense, having allowed 9 rushing touchdowns and just 4 passing touchdowns from inside the red zone this season. Army, of course, stands 116th, having given up 8 rushing touchdowns plus 7 passing touchdowns, and that’s on top of the many breakaway explosive touchdowns they’ve allowed off of broken tackles and busted coverage plays.
If Air Force breaks a couple of long runs for touchdowns, the Black Knights’ offense will need to find the wherewithal to respond. That might be a tough ask in a service academy rock fight, but Army should have by far the more versatile offense and the more experienced offensive line. They’re going to need to find a way to make that work.
Final Thoughts
We’re likely in for a tough contest this weekend, but to be clear this is most definitely a game that the Black Knights can and should win. It’s a night home game on national broadcast television that will see no less than two major networks on site to report on it. The Black Knights will be facing a team that will most likely start its third or fourth string quarterback in front of a rabidly hostile crowd.
In an otherwise even contest, that might make all the difference.
With a win, this team becomes bowl eligible and earns a shot at the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy this December in the Army-Navy Game. The team can finish the season on a roll and head into America’s Game with momentum. With a loss, though, the team will have to scramble just to get bowl eligible.
The line on this game opened at Army (-6), but bettors have been selling the Black Knights all week. As a result, the current line is now Army (-3). Essentially, the game looks like a push, save that Army will be at home. For what it’s worth, Massey likes Army, 31-25, while SP+ makes the game a push absent home field advantage.
Friends, Army has something to prove this weekend.
Fox will be at West Point this weekend for Big Noon Kickoff, even though CBS has coverage, starting at 7:30 ET. On Sunday, they’ll broadcast their NFL show from West Point as well.
I’ll see you out there. Let’s get loud and help our team win!
Go Army! Beat Air Force!!!
