As For Football
An insider's guide for cadets, Old Grads, and Army Football fans.

Army Football Preview: 2023 Season Preview (Third Quarter)

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We’re into Week 3 of As For Football’s preview of the 2023 Army Football Season. Things ought get tougher immediately following the season’s halfway point. The Black Knights will head to Death Valley to take on LSU, host UMass, and then get back on the road for a date with Air Force at Mile High Stadium.

In case you’ve missed any of the previous articles in this series, you can find those here:

 — Army Football Preview: 2023 Season Preview (First Quarter)
 — Army Football Preview: 2023 Season Preview (Second Quarter)

2023 Season Preview: Third Quarter

Week 8: at Louisiana State University Tigers

2022 Record: 10-4 (6-2 in the SEC West; Beat Purdue in the Citrus Bowl)
SP+: +25.2 (5th)
FPI: +22.1 (4th)

The good news is that Army gets LSU coming off what will hopefully be a tough game against SEC West rival Auburn. The bad news is that the Black Knights catch the Tigers going into a bye week. LSU will then travel to Alabama the first week of November. 

Alas, without that bye week, this might have set up as an ideal LSU trap game.

The preseason polls liked the Tigers quite a lot, and even though they weren’t necessarily as consistent as they might’ve been last year, they still peaked well against ‘Bama at home, played terrific football down the stretch, and finished last season by winning the SEC West. This year, QB Jayden Daniels is back, and the defense promises to be at least as good as they were last year. That by itself is a lot to think about.

Projected Line: Army (+35.4)

Any way you look at it, this is a tough match-up. Can Army’s O-Line hold up against LSU’s defense? Can they win some one-on-one match-ups in the outside running game against the Tigers’ cornerbacks? 

Hell, can Army just stay healthy during and after this one game?

It’s good to get a chance to play against the best teams in the country. This particular contest, though, promises to be quite a tough one.

Week 9: UMass Minutemen

2022 Record: 1-11
SP+: -21.7 (131st)
FPI: -17.2 (133rd)

UMass was better on defense last year than they were on offense, and that ought to continue. They return 13 of their top 18 defensive players from a year ago plus a transfer at defensive tackle from Florida and two transfer safeties from Miami. They’ve also got some new quarterbacks and a bunch of wide receiver transfers. 

That’s all good. But man, these guys have got a lot of work to do. 

The Minutemen played decent run defense for about a half in a losing effort at UConn last year and then did the same against Army… again for about a half. But both games eventually got out of hand, and in the end, Army delivered a whupping to the tune of 44-7. Among other things, the Black Knights ran for almost 400 yards against the consensus best part of UMass’s team.

Turnovers absolutely killed these guys a year ago, so they’ve got to fix. They also need to build a more effective running game, which is tough because I very much doubt they’ll find a better running back than the guy they had last year in RB Ellis Merriweather. They’ve also got to improve their conditioning. They had real size on both lines last year, but their players looked physically gassed throughout the second half when we watched them in real-time.

Projected Line: Army (-13.8)

Bottom line, this is a game that the Black Knights absolutely must win.

Week 10: Bye Week

Week 11: Air Force

2022 Record: 10-3 (5-3 in the Mountain West-Mountain; Beat Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl)
SP+: -6.1 (81st)
FPI: -5.2 (86th)

Air Force boasted an outstanding defense last year, and they return a lot of guys — again. ESPN’s write-up implies that there’s been something like a step-change in the Zoomie’s defensive approach, but from where I sit, it looks more like the impact of having guys sit-out during the COVID year who were then able to come back and play at a high level later. This ought to be the last year of that particular problem, but still, we are where we are. When Air Force can field an experienced D-Line, they are usually pretty good, and their 2023 squad promises to be good along the D-Line… and at linebacker and safety, too.

The Zoomies, though, will need to find some answers on offense. FB Brad Roberts accounted for something like half of their total offensive production last year, and now he’s gone. QB Haaziq Daniels produced nearly everything else, but he’s gone, too. Candidly, I think they might replace Daniels, who excelled mostly because he was surrounded by an excellent supporting cast. Roberts, however, was a generational talent. The Zoomies aren’t gonna get that kind of production from The Next Man Up under any circumstances whatsoever.

Projected Line: Army (+3)

The most interesting thing about this year’s match-up will be the Zoomies’ reaction to Army’s new offense. They’ve defended the Black Knights with basically the same defensive approach since dinosaurs walked the Plain. Now that approach has got to go out the window. They may still be excellent against the run, especially in the middle of the field, but the new scheme aims to force their corners to tackle on the edges. Maybe that works, and maybe it doesn’t, but it’s definitely gonna be something to watch as it plays out.

It’s also worth noting that this game is slated for Mile High Stadium, which is a little more than a thousand feet lower than Falcon Stadium — and relatively far away for Falcon Season Ticket Holders, too. The Zoomies do not travel nearly as well as the Black Knights, and the altitude effect will be distinctly less noticeable at 5500-feet versus Falcon Stadium’s almost-7000. Personally, the altitude thing doesn’t bother me until we get up over 9000 feet (i.e. Breckenridge), but the psychology of it is very real, and every edge counts. Not playing at Falcon Stadium matters, playing in front of a potentially neutral crowd instead of a true Air Force home crowd matters, and playing at a slightly lower elevation matters. It also matters that the Black Knights have a bye heading into this game whereas the Zoomies will be coming off a road game at Colorado State.

How much will any of that stuff matter? We’ll have to wait and see.

Final Thoughts

I feel like we’ll know what to expect with this part of the season after we see Army play their first six games. Regardless of how the season opens, though, we’re still gonna get a very tough road contest at LSU, a distinctly winnable game at home against UMass, and a standard-issue service academy slobberknocker with a few wrinkles against the Zoomies.

This ought to be good.

Go Army! Beat ULM!!!

Cover image via West Point – The U.S. Military Academy on Flickr.

About the Author

Danno E. Cabeza

Danno E. Cabeza is a member of the West Point Class of 1995 and former Army Swimmer. He now serves as Editor and Managing Partner at As For Football. His new book,
The Return of Dr. Necropolis, comes out December 29th, 2026. Read more of his work at Casa Cabeza.

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