It’s game week, so we really should have finished this series last week. Thankfully, we’ve got a little break in the schedule today, and here we are.
Fourth Quarter Preview
This final section of Army’s season features a bye week, a home game against Tulsa, a road game on Rivalry Weekend at UTSA, another presumed bye week, and the Army-Navy Game.
Week 12: Bye
This bye works more in the grand scheme of things than it serves to set up any specific short-term match-up. The team would probably rather play Temple and Tulsa back-to-back and then get byes ahead of UTSA and Navy. However, getting two byes in the month before Army-Navy will certainly work better than what happened last year when the Black Knights played Notre Dame, UTSA, and Tulane in the weeks immediately leading up to Army-Navy. Unless Army somehow makes it back to the American Conference Championship Game, the team should look substantially more rested when they hit the field this year for America’s Game.
Week 13: at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
2024 Record: 3-9 (1-7 in the American)
SP+: -15.6 (120th)
FPI: -15.0 (130th)
Massey: 147th overall; Offense 122nd, Defense 172nd
Tulsa had a strange year in 2024. As a whole, the team did not have much to recommend it. However, they got an overtime win at La. Tech and somehow beat UTSA in a shootout at home. This from a team that also lost to North Texas, 52-20, and to FAU, 63-16!
The Golden Hurricane head into 2025 led by new Head Coach Tre Lamb. Lamb has brought a few transfers with him from his former school, East Tennessee State, and he’s found a bunch more from elsewhere in the FCS. However, Tulsa QB Kirk Francis, the team’s leading passer, returns. That’s at least something upon which to build.
If the coaching staff can get Francis and the team’s various transfers on the same page, then maybe they’ll have something. However, this team also has to integrate at least a dozen new faces on defense. All those disparate pieces probably won’t come together quickly or easily. However, they might have time to become a cohesive whole by the time they host Army in November.
Projected Betting Line: Army (-18).
Building Culture.#ReignCane pic.twitter.com/WR1fUZl9n4
— Tulsa Football (@TulsaFootball) March 8, 2025
Week 14: at UTSA Roadrunners
2024 Record: 7-6 (4-4 in the American); beat Coastal Carolina in the Myrtle Beach Bowl
SP+: +0.0 (63rd)
FPI: -2.4 (70th)
Massey: 81st overall; Offense 65th, Defense 98th
UTSA had a great team on paper last year, but they struggled to find consistency early, so that a three-game winning streak that netted them four out of their last five contests overall very nearly came too late to matter. Worse, the Roadrunners really struggled on the road. They beat Memphis and North Texas — handily — at home but dropped inexplicable losses at Texas State, at ECU, at Rice, and at Tulsa. This despite having a quality quarterback, a solid running game, and an absolutely outstanding rushing defense.
The Roadrunners return damned-near their whole offense, including QB Owen McCown, RB Robert Henry, most of the receiving corps, and four of their starting five offensive linemen. This team also returns six starters on defense, including some absolute units at defensive tackle.
Friends, by all rights this team absolutely should play in the American Conference Championship in 2025. We’ll see if they can live up to that potential.
Projected Betting Line: Army (+3.5)
Today, as we celebrate the 15th season of @UTSAFTBL, we look back on a memorable 21-point comeback victory against Memphis capped by a 42-yard @hd_duplessis field goal. #BirdsUp 🤙 #LetsGo210 pic.twitter.com/YfBIr5HECa
— UTSA Athletics (@UTSAAthletics) August 25, 2025
Week 15: American Conference Championship
ESPN lists Tulane, Memphis, UTSA, Navy, and Army as conference contenders. They have USF, UNT, and ECU listed as potential dark horses.
From that list, UTSA has probably the most manageable schedule, followed by either Memphis or Navy. The Roadrunners will face Tulane, ECU, and Army at home, and friends, this Roadrunners team plays outstanding football in the Alamo Dome. Moreover, UTSA has just one real road challenge, and that’s at USF on November 6th. So they either make it this year, or Head Coach Jeff Traylor has some explaining to do.
But they’ll probably make it.
Tulane might have the best team, but they also have by far the toughest road to the championship. They’ll play ECU, Army, at UTSA, and then at Memphis in successive contests starting in early October. That’s gonna suck.
Memphis has quite a manageable early-season schedule. They then host USF, Tulane, and Navy in the second half of the year, and they play ECU on the road. If the Tigers can beat Arkansas — at home! — they have a real chance to run the table and earn a spot in the Playoff.
Finally, we’ve got the Mids, who should most definitely run the table up until their game at Notre Dame on November 8th. After that, they host USF, travel to Memphis, and will play in the Army-Navy Game.
With all of that in mind, let’s pencil in UTSA at Memphis for the Championship with the caveat that Navy at either UTSA or Memphis might be the second most-likely option. Either way, Navy at Memphis on Rivalry Weekend will probably be for a spot in the championship, and it may well determine who hosts.
In the American, every week is a battle-and Army makes the fight even tougher😤
— The American (@American_Conf) August 26, 2025
American football is back in 2 DAYS⏳#BuiltToRise x @ArmyWP_Football pic.twitter.com/wwJk6ejRhl
Week 16: Army-Navy
Navy’s 2024 Record: 10-3 (6-2 in the American); beat Oklahoma in the Armed Forces Bowl
SP+: -1.0 (68th)
FPI: -4.8 (81st)
Massey: 72nd overall; Offense 83rd, Defense 61st
We’ve got lots and lots of college football between now and the Army-Navy Game. But this year’s Navy team has a bunch of returning seniors, a good defense, and a proven star at quarterback. If QB Blake Horvath can stay healthy through what looks to be a very challenging month of November, this team can absolutely challenge for the American Conference Championship.
But that’s a big “if”. As we noted above, these guys have to play at Notre Dame and at home against USF. They then have a bye before traveling to Memphis, where they’ll probably be playing for a spot in the Championship — and maybe home field advantage. They’ll then meet Army two weeks after that.
If the Mids miss the championship, then they’ll have plenty of rest and all the chance in the world in America’s Game. If they make it, though, they’ll have a tough stretch here just like Army did last season. No one has made that work back-to-back, but of course, there’s a first time for everything.
Projected Betting Line: Pick ‘em.
What's your favorite Naval Academy tradition?#GoNavy | #RollGoats pic.twitter.com/bPcTOzJs6C
— Navy Football (@NavyFB) August 21, 2025
Final Thoughts
Vegas set Army’s season win total at 7.5 wins, and that’s a pretty good line. Seven or eight wins seem probable, and if the team can exceed expectations by just a little and finish 8-4 through the regular season, most fans ought to be happy enough.
Sure, there’s a world in which Army goes 10-1 through the regular season and makes it back to the American Conference Championship. After last season, however, most fans would probably prefer a simple bowl berth and a more realistic shot at the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. That’s tricky, though, because Air Force will almost certainly be better than most folks expect, and the Mids look clearly superior — at least on paper.
The stage is getting set ⏳ pic.twitter.com/y28yp0tJoz
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) August 22, 2025
At the end of the day, we’ve all just got to take these games one at a time and enjoy the season. The Black Knights need to beat Tarleton State first and foremost. After that, the rest of the season will take care of itself in due course.
Go Army! Beat Tarleton State!!!
Cover image via Flickr: West Point – The U.S. Military Academy.
