We’re into Week 7 of 2025’s college football season, and I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the American Conference has arguably the best gameday slate of any conference in the country.
Sure, the SEC weirdly now owns this weekend’s Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma as well as new-school match-up ‘Bama at Mizzou. The Big Ten somehow offers Indiana at freaking Oregon as its marquee contest. Those have some sizzle. Any of those teams might make the College Football Playoff, and if they don’t, Hell, we can always add more teams. Alas, if the last few years have proven anything, it’s that the SEC will attempt to add teams to the Playoff until ‘Bama gets an auto-bid.
Welcome to the year 2025.
Friends, America’s conference is still looking to send its one BEST team to the Playoff, and right now, a bunch of teams have a shot at that title. But this weekend’s contests will go a long way towards winnowing the field, creating a set of high-leverage contests of a kind the power conferences can no longer offer.
East Carolina at Tulane. South Florida at North Texas. The losers of these games will be OUT. The winners will still have a shot.
THAT is what college football is supposed to be.
Editor’s Note: AFF always lists lines against their direction of movement. For example, Tulane opened -7.5 points at home against ECU. The line has since slid to Tulane (-6.5). Since the latter is obviously a better bet, we’ve listed it that way. ECU (+6.5) might be the same odds, but listing the line the way we did tells you a little more about the match-up.
East Carolina at Tulane (-6.5)
Thursday, October 9th at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN
Anybody could’ve told you before the season that Tulane would be a massive home favorite against ECU. But then we actually played some of these games, and while the Green Wave have done well enough, they haven’t impressed quite as much as folks might’ve expected.
Or have they?
Tulane beat the brakes off Duke (4-2, 3-0 in the ACC) and Northwestern (2-3, 1-1 in the Big 10), and those are both Power 4 schools. Hell, Duke might even be good!
But style points matter in college football, at least until we can see some of these teams play each other. And while Tulane might’ve beaten Duke and Northwestern, they struggled against lowly South Alabama (1-5, 0-2 in the Sun Belt), and more to the point, Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff hasn’t been quite as good as Green Wave fans might’ve hoped. To date, Retzlaff has gone just 68/125 through the air for all of 820 yards (54.4%) with just 2 passing touchdowns against 5 sacks. At 6.3 yards/carry and with 7 rushing touchdowns, the dude has been an astronomically better runner, but no one came into this season looking for the Green Wave to go back to their one-time version of the triple option.
Tulane fans might not want to hear it, but in truth, ECU matches up well against this specific Green Wave squad. The Pirates have an excellent rushing defense, allowing less than 120 rushing yards/game on just over 3.3 yards/carry. ECU QB Katin Houser has also been a much better passer, completing more than 68% of his throws this season!
Can ECU get to the next level in the American and beat the Green Wave? To date, they haven’t run the ball well enough to be a particularly good bet on the road. However, they get a chance to prove it this week.
Both teams do.
Friends, this looks like an outstanding contest. It ought to be by far the American Conference’s best Thursday night game to date this season.
— ECU Football (@ECUPiratesFB) October 7, 2025
#24 South Florida at North Texas (+1.5)
Friday, October 10th at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2
We thought before the season that USF might be good if QB Byrom Brown came back healthy. Well, friends, he did indeed get healthy, and now, having seen the Bulls polish off both Boise State and Florida, we know that USF is good, too. This week, they take on conference rival North Texas, who are themselves 5-0 and feeling it for the first time since 1959.
Both these teams have truly dynamic offenses. Brown has always been an electric running quarterback with a big arm surrounded by a talented wide receiving corps. By comparison, UNT’s Drew Mestemaker has shown himself to be hyper-accurate in the Mean Green’s Air Raid attack, buoyed by one of the nation’s most efficient, most underrated running games. We think of North Texas as a team that’ll sling the ball around — and they absolutely will — but they also run for 5.0 yards/carry and score in bunches on the ground. Mestemaker has thrown for 11 touchdowns, but his backs have run for *18*. That’s getting it done in every way possible.
This game might come down to whichever team can stop the run. On paper, that’s USF. But UNT has improved in this department as well, allowing just 4.0 yards/carry to USF’s 3.7. The game might also come down to which team makes a mistake, in which case North Texas should have a decided advantage as the home team.
This is the second of two super high leverage match-ups in the American this weekend. Both have a share of the national spotlight. One of the two teams in this game will have a very real shot at the Playoff. The other will likely finish with a nice season capped by a few long sighs about what might have been.
Locked In. Lights Out.
— Mean Green Sports (@MeanGreenSports) October 7, 2025
🎟️ https://t.co/3gXXq3zFeM#GMG🦅 pic.twitter.com/D9yS0hZKzj
Navy at Temple (+9.5)
Saturday, October 11th at 4:00 pm on ESPN2
This game looked like a Navy layup before the season started. But friends, this Temple team is way, way better than they were last year. Meanwhile, Navy has found itself in some shootouts in games that they probably should’ve won handily.
Last week’s 34-31 track meet with the Zoomies (1-4, 0-3 in the Mountain West) serves as a perfect sample case. The Zoomies rushed for damn-near 5 yards/carry, owned time of possession, and probably would’ve won the game outright had their quarterback not put the ball on the ground late in the fourth quarter. By comparison, Temple straight-up stuffed UTSA’s outstanding rushing attack this past week, holding previous national rushing leader Robert Henry Jr. to just 42 yards on 12 carries.
Before the season, we all thought that Navy would go to the American Conference Championship. They have that much talent without question. Failure, especially coming just a year after Army won the conference in its first attempt, would be a hideous self-own. That’s doubly true given how long Navy fans have waited for their team to come together following COVID.
If this isn’t their year, their year might never be coming.
And yet. This lowly Temple team matches up well against a Navy squad that has proven entirely too dependent on hitting big plays. No one thought Temple could beat UTSA, and yet here we are.
Can the Owls do it again?
Friends, this might be the low-key match-up of the weekend.
Relentless Pursuit 😈💯#TempleTUFF pic.twitter.com/RcdI0xYtdF
— Temple Football (@Temple_FB) October 7, 2025
Honorable Mentions
Rice (+11.5) at UTSA. The Owls haven’t been world-beaters this year, but these teams look headed in opposite directions. Can the Owls follow Temple’s template and beat the Roadrunners?
One of these teams will save its season and go to a bowl game. The other looks headed for existential angst.
UAB (+5.5) at Florida Atlantic. Surprised to see the Blazers getting five and a half points here. Both teams have gone 2-3, and just on the numbers, UAB QB Jalen Kitna looks clearly superior to FAU’s Caden Veltkamp. Both guys play in similar schemes.
Both these teams also still have a realistic path to bowl eligibility, but in both cases, they have to win this game first. This game’s loser will almost certainly head to the offseason early.
It’s only fitting that @ZKittley is named @American_Conf Head Coach of the Week on National Coaches Day! 👌#WIP🏝️ pic.twitter.com/PLyRN35nXS
— Florida Atlantic Football (@FAUFootball) October 6, 2025
Final Thoughts
While the SEC and Big 10 can use pure market power to get their teams into big-time bowl games and even into the College Football Playoff, teams in the American actually have to show out on the field. This week, with its high leverage conference contests in nationally spotlighted timeslots, has therefore become important not just to the teams involved but to the conference as a whole. Moreover, because of the way things have shaken out this year, virtually every American Conference team will play something like a must-win game this weekend.
With that in mind, the AFF Crew would like to remind you that if your team loses, it’s YOUR FAULT. You didn’t cheer loud enough. You didn’t wear your lucky shirt. You flat didn’t believe hard enough.
You did it, and you should feel bad about it.
Get off your lazy asses and cheer, you clowns. No one feels sorry for you. Go make it happen for your teams this weekend!
Go Army! Beat Charlotte!!!
