This weekend should go a long way towards clearing up our muddled American Conference Championship picture. Though every team in the conference has at least one conference loss, we still have five teams with exactly one such loss. With Navy and South Florida playing this weekend, at least one of those five will fall out of contention on Saturday. Even then, though, we’ll still have at least three remaining championship contenders. We might have four depending on how ECU does against Memphis.
Neither North Texas nor Tulane have truly competitive conference games remaining on their schedules. Moreover, either USF or Navy will get through this weekend’s brawl unscathed. This therefore creates the likelihood of an at-least three-way tie at the top of the conference to close the season. If that happens, the matter will come down to College Football Playoff rankings, giving both South Florida and Tulane a likely boost based on their extant Power 4 wins.
Granted, both teams still have to survive the next few weekends.
#24 South Florida at Navy (+10.5)
Saturday at Noon on ESPN2
South Florida has been one of the best teams in the country this season, and assuming the Bulls handle business at Navy this Saturday, they’ll likely host the American Conference Championship in early December.
Why should we expect South Florida to win?
First, because they do a lot of the same things that Navy does, only they do them better. Second, because the Bulls pair their outstanding, power-running, downfield passing offense with an elite rushing defense that yields just 115 rushing yards/game.
QB Byrom Brown stars for this Bulls’ offense. He’s gone 168/260 passing this season (64.6%) for 2,203 yards and 19 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions and 13 sacks. If that was all he did, it would still be damned good. However, Brown also leads his team in rushing, having become one of the most dynamic running quarterbacks in the FBS. He’s taken 129 carries for 5.5 yards/carry and 9 touchdowns. He not only scrambles in unsettled situations, he also runs the kind of QB Zone plays that both Army and Navy use as offensive staples. But Brown makes them explosive.
Add in a defense that held UTSA’s outstanding rushing offense to just 72 yards on 1.9 yards/carry and which put USF up 14-0 on the Roadrunners before the Bulls’ offense had even taken the field, and yeah. This might be the best team in the conference.
By comparison, Navy has a good team, but they need to find some answers against high-caliber competition. They stayed mostly competitive on a play-by-play basis against North Texas two weeks ago, but they also turned the ball over three times and gave up 200 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to UNT freshman RB Caleb Hawkins. With that, they lost, 31-17. Against Notre Dame, they again gave up a ton of rushing yards and wound up getting run out of the building, 49-10.
Friends, USF also runs the football. Better than North Texas. Probably on par with Notre Dame. If the Mids can’t stop — or at least slow — Brown and that Bulls offense, they’re likely in for another long day.
Semifinals season! Byrum has been named a @daveyobrien Award semifinalist. Bulls Nation, your votes matter!
— USF Football (@USFFootball) November 12, 2025
To vote, simply like the @daveyobrien original post highlighting Byrum. The top vote getters on each platform will receive bonus committee votes that will be added to the… pic.twitter.com/KD9gnqXyRd
Memphis (+3) at East Carolina
Saturday at 4:00 pm on ESPNU
East Carolina doesn’t have the P4 resume it probably needs to qualify for the American Conference Championship. However, it does have one of the most improved squads in the conference, and that squad would very much like to take the step into the conference’s elite ranks. The Pirates will get their chance this weekend, hosting a wounded but still quite dangerous Memphis team this Saturday.
Friends, these teams look pretty similar on offense. Surprisingly, it’s ECU QB Kaitin Houser who’s thrown for both more yards and more touchdowns, though the Tigers have run for slightly more yards and have scored slightly more points overall. Thus, this game may very well come down to rushing defense, in which case ECU has a significant edge. The Pirates boast the nation’s 19th ranked rushing defense, allowing just 106 yards/game, alongside the nation’s 6th ranked scoring defense.
How is Memphis QB Brendon Lewis’s ankle?
USF looked set to run away with their game at Memphis a few weeks ago, until Lewis started running to set up the rest of his offense. However, he couldn’t quite make that same trick work at home against Tulane last week. The Green Wave then held Memphis’s rushing attack in check, allowing QB Jake Retzlaff to win what eventually became a quarterback duel.
Can Houser win this same way? If he does, is there any scenario in which the Pirates somehow make it into the American Conference Championship?
We’ll see. The Pirates, at least, should come into this one hungry. Memphis, meanwhile, will want to salvage their season by proving that they remain the conference’s apex predator.
Scenes from last weeks win 📸 pic.twitter.com/brXHDCeXPO
— ECU Football (@ECUPiratesFB) November 12, 2025
Other Conference Contests
UTSA at Charlotte (+18.5)
UTSA laid an egg on the road last week. They should win this week, but man, this team does not travel well. It seems impossible, but UTSA’s inconsistency on the road might actually make this game interesting.
Oregon State at Tulsa (+2.5)
This is an odd match-up for November. Oregon State has a decent rushing defense, so maybe they can use that to wrong-foot Tulsa’s offensive attack. But who knows? Given that both teams currently boast all of two wins, half these players might already be thinking about the Transfer Portal.
North Texas at UAB (+18.5)
North Texas just needs to do what they do and hope they somehow catch a break on the tiebreakers to qualify for the conference championship.
FAU (+18) at Tulane
Like North Texas, Tulane also just needs to keep doing what they do. Unlike North Texas, Tulane has been maddeningly inconsistent at times this season and is therefore the most likely team to drop an otherwise winnable game in a key situation.
We're humbled and honored to represent the Army’s 250 years of unwavering service to the Nation and unparalleled sacrifice on Dec. 13 in Baltimore. pic.twitter.com/1F3lFJY67z
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) November 12, 2025
Our Standard Note About Betting Lines
AFF always lists lines against their direction of movement. For example, Sam Houston State opened (+9.5) on the road at Western Kentucky in Week 1. That line then slid to SHS (+10). Since the latter is obviously a better bet, we listed it on SHS’s side. WKU (-9.5) might be another way to list those same odds, but given the choice, you’d rather bet against the direction of movement.
Please note that we do not encourage you to gamble. In fact, most of the AFF Crew does not bet on sports. However, sports betting lines provide such a quick and easy shorthand to express overall expectations for various contests that we refer to their implied math all too frequently.
Final Thoughts
This weekend’s slate looked a good bit more interesting before Tulane beat Memphis and Notre Dame then pounded Navy. With the way things currently stand, it would take some kind of upset to yield any championship match-up other than Tulane at USF. But crazy things happen all the time in college football, and this is the American Conference after all. Anything can still happen.
Been having this ongoing discussion today with @BrigadeReview about the Great Chain & West Point.
— As For Football (@asforfootball) November 12, 2025
The British strategy during the Revolution was similar to the Union’s Anaconda Plan during the Civil War. The Brits wanted to divide Revolutionary New England off from the rest of… pic.twitter.com/USpiB1viSu
We probably shouldn’t be surprised by another titanic upset. That’s just the way this season has rolled.
Go Army! Beat Tulsa!!!
