We started last week with our Army Football team preview. This week, we’re going to start looking into Army’s opponents. As we’ve done in past seasons, we’ll break the season down into quarters. We’ll therefore start with 2026’s first three games — Bryant, South Florida, and at Temple.
I should note that FPI tends to weight a team’s conference heavily while SP+ specifically tries NOT to do that. FPI has the goal of predicting which teams will make the College Football Playoff in a process that manifestly tilts towards the Power 4, so weighting by conference makes sense. By comparison, SP+ tries to pick winners in games based on statistics.
We averaged the two betting lines to come up with these projections, which are presented solely as a way of explaining our expectations for each game.
2026 Season Preview: First Quarter
Week 1: Bryant Bulldogs (3-9 in 2025; 1-7 in the CAA)
After a tough 2025 campaign that saw Bryant beat UMass but struggle against nearly everyone else except DII Bentley, Head Coach Chris Merritt returns for his 8th season in 2026. The Bulldogs return several key starters, including two of their better tacklers, their quarterback, and part of the offensive line. Still, this is a team that struggled mightily last year. QB Brennan Myer threw for nearly 1200 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in just five games of work. But he also completed less than 60% of his passes and took a whopping 10 sacks.
Last year’s FCS opener at Michie Stadium turned into a debacle. At least on paper, this looks like a much better match-up. No one expects Bryant to compete in the Coastal Athletic Association (CAA) conference championship, much less beat a quality team from the American.
FPI: N/A
SP+: N/A
Projected Line: N/A
Unusually for a Labor Day Weekend opener, Army’s home opener kicks at noon Eastern Time (ET) on Saturday, September 5. CBS Sports has coverage.
2026 Bryant Football Position Preview (Quarterbacks)
— Bryant Football (@BryantUFootball) August 5, 2026
📝: https://t.co/dMlpnaU529 pic.twitter.com/vmoyBLhxQn
Week 2: South Florida Bulls (9-4 in 2025; 6-2 in the American)
South Florida beat Boise State and Florida early last year and then briefly looked like one of the very best teams in the country. However, they lost close games at Memphis and at Navy down the stretch, and their College Football Playoff dreams evaporated. They closed with a loss to Old Dominion in the Cure Bowl, and then they lost their coach and most of their team to the transfer portal.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one.
USF hired new Head Coach Brian Hartline from Ohio State and then restocked their roster with a bunch of power conference transfers. ESPN’s Bill Connelly projects QB Michael Van Buren to get the start after transferring in from LSU. Van Buren threw for almost 3000 yards over the past two seasons with a marked improvement in accuracy last year to 62.3%. He threw for 8 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions in limited work last year, though he took 14 sacks.
The Bulls should have elite talent, but they’ll have to get that talent together quickly to beat Army at Michie Stadium in Week 2.
FPI: -0.9
SP+: -2.7
Projected Line: Army (-0.5)
The rankings make this game a push, and that puts it on par with most of this season’s games. If Hartline can get his athletes performing as a team by Week 2, then this will be quite a tough contest for the Black Knights. However, if these Bulls haven’t quite gelled early in the season, especially on defense, then they might struggle against Army’s triple-option attack behind the Black Knights’ big, experienced O-Line.
As with Army’s Week 1 match-up, this game will kick at noon on CBS Sports.
Today’s tape 🎥 pic.twitter.com/0j6MqrpXQT
— South Florida Football (@USFFootball) August 7, 2026
Week 3: Bye
We’d probably rather have this bye before Tulane, Memphis, or the Air Force game, but taking it before the team’s first road contest is hardly some disaster, especially since that next game will come early on a Friday afternoon.
Soon we'll be taking the field at West Point!
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) August 8, 2026
Saturday, Sept. 5 at 12 PM vs. Bryant 🏈#GoArmy pic.twitter.com/PpuVZInpb3
Week 4: at Temple (5-7 in 2025; 3-5 in the American)
None of the big-time prognosticators thought much of Temple ahead of the 2025 season, but despite finishing 5-7 overall, the Owls actually had a pretty good team. They notched several impressive wins and probably should have beaten Navy save for two epic collapses in the final minutes of that final quarter. What can you do?
Head Coach K.C. Keeler is back for his second year with the Owls, and we expect he’ll get his squad to perform even better this season. The Owls need to find a quarterback, but they’ll return four guys off their O-Line plus a bunch of skill position players and ten guys from last year’s run-stuffing defense. That sets this contest up as an inverse to Army’s Week 2 match-up. Temple probably won’t field the kind of athletes USF is bringing in, but the Owls ought to know how to play together very effectively.
FPI: -8.6
SP+: -8.7
Projected Line: Army (-1.5)
For better or worse, this is one of those spots where the effects of home field advantage might be getting overplayed a bit in the betting line. That’s doubly true given that this game will go on a random Friday afternoon in September, starting at 4:00 pm ET on ESPN.
Who scheduled that start time? Three quarters of the Black Knights’ fanbase will either still be in the office or marching back from the motor pool when this game kicks.
All apart of the process ☀️😎#TempleTUFF pic.twitter.com/X4q12T21pl
— Temple Football (@Temple_FB) August 8, 2026
Final Thoughts
After Bryant, pretty much all of Army’s games look like close, nail-biting, one-score roller coaster rides. If the Black Knights can figure out how to play consistently on offense again and hold leads in the second halves of games, they’ll have every chance of winning those games and of getting off to a 3-0 start this season. However, that’s a big if, especially on a team with a new Defensive Coordinator and a bunch of new defensive starters. But even if we get a return of last year’s insanely inconsistent cardiac cadets, a 2-1 start seems at least likely through this early stretch given that the second two games of the season both look like pushes on the betting line.
How close is the action from the new East Stands?
— Tom Theodorakis (@TT_Army_AD) June 18, 2026
We tested it 🏈
Changing the fan and cadet experience!#MichieStadiumPreservationProject pic.twitter.com/8vfKP57wZS
If I had to place a wager, I’d bet on a wild season, especially in the early going. Should be awesome, though.
Go Army! Beat Bryant!!!
