This Saturday will mark the first time ever that a CIC game will be broadcast in primetime on a Saturday. This is just the 4th ever Saturday night game at Michie Stadium, and the first since 2007. The previous three were the 1984 win over Air Force, the 1985 win over Boston College, and the 2007 overtime win over Tulane – the Michie Miracle. It’s a good thing Army installed a new lighting system this offseason. Hopefully, we’ll get to see it used plenty on Saturday night.
Thanks to Army AD Tom Theodorakis for the video! @TT_Army_AD
Army will also play host to FOX Big Noon Kickoff on Saturday morning as well as FOX NFL Sunday the following morning from the Plain.
Air Force Falcons
Air Force enters this game with a 6-2 record, having beaten Navy in the first leg of the CIC trophy 14-9. The Falcons won that game primarily because of two touchdown drives in the second quarter. Their other 7 full drives included 4 punts, 2 interceptions, and a turnover on downs. In those drives, they gained just 130 yards and only entered Navy’s side of the field twice – and never reached the red zone.
But not a lot will translate from that game. For starters, Air Force has a different quarterback. Additionally, Navy’s rush defense grades out much better than Army’s. Lastly, Navy threw 18 passes in that game – a mark that Army hasn’t hit in a CIC matchup since 2010.
Offense
Junior QB Liam Szarka was in his second season in the starting role before suffering a season-ending injury against Navy. Sophomore Evan Medders was the immediate backup for the Falcons, but left the Wyoming game two weeks ago with an injury and did not play against UConn. If Medders can’t suit up Saturday, it’s probably senior Kemper Hodges who will take snaps to start. He’s appeared as a FB this year, but has been listed as backup QB for two years. He’s listed at 6’0” and 245 pounds. If it’s Hodges that starts, we shouldn’t see much in the passing game – a sight for sore eyes when it comes to Army’s defense. If Air Force ends up needing a passing game, they’re likely to look to freshman Howard Fisher IV, who’s thrown 9 times over the last two games
Despite the carousel at QB, the Falcons continue to use the QB for about half of their rushes. Fullbacks take about 30%, while slotbacks take the last 20%. This hasn’t changed much in the weeks after Szarka went down. For comparison, Army’s QB/FB/SB rush distribution is 44%/36%/20%.
The Falcons’ FB room is again dominated by Owen Allen – the only player with triple digit carries so far. His production is down from 5.7 to 4.2 this year, though. And he averaged just 2 yards per carry in the Navy game. This is primarily indicative of an offensive line issue. The Falcons returned just one starter this year, Alec Falk, who missed last week’s game with an undisclosed injury. It’s unclear whether Falk will be available this week.
Air Force has averaged one turnover per FBS opponent. That would go a long way on Saturday night as turnovers are a great way to break up a rock fight. This matchup will be fascinating as Army’s relatively inexperienced linebackers will be matching up against a relatively inexperienced offensive line. There is an opportunity here for Army’s defensive line – which brought three total years of starting experience into the season – to control the line of scrimmage.
Defense
Usually, this section would start with a look at Air Force’s defense in the Navy game. But since Navy threw the ball three times as much as their FB ran the ball, it won’t offer much in comparison this year.
Senior LB Blake Fletcher leads the team in tackles with 79. He’s joined by fellow LB Dallas Daley with 49. Air Force is 103rd in yards per carry allowed and 134th in TFLs. How can a team with such bad metrics be 6-2, you ask? Well, the Falcons have a top 20 passing defense and a top 40 red zone defense.
The only notable injury for the Falcons’ rush defense is NG Chaz Barnett. Barnett began the year as a starter before getting injured against NDSU. He isn’t listed as out for the season, but has not seen action since.
Special Teams
Air Force K Carter Cremascoli – Italian for “creampipe” in case any future squadronmates need a callsign suggestion – has missed one PAT and one FG this season. The PAT was blocked and the FG was a 28 yarder from the left hash which missed to the right. His long is 52 yards.
Junior P Will Duncan – whose name does not translate from Italian – is probably the best service academy punter this year, despite being the only one that hasn’t been nominated for a weekly Ray’s Eight award. He averages 48 yards per punt with 9 over 50 and just 2 touchbacks.
Neither Army nor Air Force has done a whole lot in the return game against FBS opponents. Both place kickers and punters have operated at a high level all year. This means the teams should be aiming for a “push” in special teams on Saturday. There will be a very fine line between creativity and doing too much. Given how the offenses and defenses match up, this line likely won’t be one that head coaches will want to test.
Final Thoughts
As is CIC tradition, this game is going to be decided by who makes the fewest mistakes, who makes the extra big play, and how well the big bodies on one team throw themselves against the big bodies on the other team. Real football. Beautiful, isn’t it? For those wanting to watch fake football where fans complain about blocking and tackling, feel free to tune into NBC instead.
Assuming that QB Evan Medders doesn’t return, this game will come down to offensive line play. Half of that is being good enough to win the field position battle. The other half is the line’s ability to string together a few key drives and finishing with 7 points instead of 3. If Medders makes a return, it will be a bit more of a test for Army’s pass defense.
Note: Coach Calhoun said that Evan Medders hasn’t taken full speed snaps yet. He suggested that it could be anouther 10 days to two weeks until he’s ready to play. We’ll see whether that’s gamesmanship or not on Saturday night.
How to Watch
The game kicks off at 7:30 PM ET on CBS. As always, radio will be on the Varsity App. And the Firstie Club is the place to go for the best gameday chat around!
Army opened as a six point favorite, but that line has halved to -3 since Sunday. The total has dropped from 52.5 to 45.5, a full touchdown less. Let’s hope this primetime rock fight follows that prediction’s result!
Go Army! Beat Air Force!!!
