Friends, the 2024 college football season is coming to a close, but thankfully, it will finish with the biggest game of the year. Your Army Black Knights will take on the Squids from the Boat School at Commander’s Stadium in Landover, Maryland, this Saturday.
Be excited!
Army has already won the American Conference Championship and guaranteed an 11-win season. With a win this weekend, the 2024 Army Football Team will cement its place in history as the best Army Team since the glory days of the 1950s.
Let’s talk about how Army wins.
On Saturday, @CBSSports will proudly present the 125th Army-Navy Game.
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) December 9, 2024
It’s a tradition that will continue for many years to come, following today’s announcement that CBS will remain the home of this historic and revered rivalry through 2038. pic.twitter.com/E0y69kMV7H
Keys to Victory Over Navy
Take What the Defense Gives You
Navy’s defense put four guys on the American’s All-Conference First Team and two more on the All-Conference Second Team. They have a very talented defensive unit.
Despite that, their rushing defense has not performed remotely as well statistically this season as they have in recent years. Navy ranks 85th in rushing defense in the FBS, allowing 159.8 yards/game on every bit of 4.3 yards/carry. This marks the first time they’ve given up more than 4 yards/carry on the ground since now-Head Coach Brian Newbury took over as their defensive coordinator. In any other game, we would feel good about Army’s offensive line getting push up the middle against a team with those statistics and thus about Army’s ability to run the ball overall.
However. The Mids know Army’s offense very well. In fact, this weekend will mark the 125th time they’ve seen it. That makes running the football and scoring difficult in these games to the point that service academy games typically stay notoriously conservative and low-scoring.
Against that, we have the reality that Army has become an effective passing team this season. We’ve seen in multiple games that when teams crowd the line of scrimmage against this particular Black Knights offense, they often throw deep to loosen things up. We saw them do this early in the season at Tulsa, at home against ECU, and again at home against UTSA just two weeks ago. QB Bryson Daily has gone 45/78 passing this season (57.7%) for 877 yards with 8 touchdowns against just 1 pick and 4 sacks. That’s not bad. But over the last few weeks, he’s been notably better than that. In his last two games, he’s 12/19 (63.2%) for 207 yards and a touchdown with no picks and just 2 sacks. Bottom line, as Daily has gotten healthier following his foot injury, he’s improved as a passer. That should not come as a surprise.
We don’t know exactly how this Navy team will defend Army. But if they crowd the line of scrimmage — as we suspect they will — the Black Knights will need to take what’s there and throw. The alternative would let the Black Knights’ offense run at will. Since the Mids certainly cannot win that way, we don’t expect that’s what we’ll see from them.
The No. 1 goal is to #BeatNavypic.twitter.com/3RLY1exvjO
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) December 12, 2024
Play Assignment Football on Defense
Navy’s offense started this season red hot. They’ve cooled a bit as tape has come out on their Hybrid Wing-T scheme, but they remain a hellaciously explosive and effective unit.
As they’ve done all season, Army’s defense can afford to give up some yards this weekend. However, they cannot afford to give up a ton of big, explosive plays. Army’s defense has been outstanding in the red zone, so once things get tight down by the goal line, we can feel good about the Black Knights’ chances. However, if the Mids break guys free for monster scoring plays, that will change the complexion of this weekend’s contest.
Army must play rock-solid assignment football on defense to prevent big, explosive plays. The Mids use a lot of pre-snap movement and misdirection alongside a variety of option concepts to break guys free in space. They are not as good as the Black Knights at controlling the ball and driving the full length of the field, but they are much better than Army at creating busted coverages that break for long scores.
If Army can play assignment football and force the Mids to repeatedly drive the full length of the field, the Black Knights will invariably force enough punts to win this game. However, if the Mids hit a few explosive plays for touchdowns, this could turn into a wild afternoon.
⚔️🏈🏆 AAC CHAMPIONS 🏆🏈⚔️ pic.twitter.com/77MhgDmfj8
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) December 7, 2024
Get Good Blocks on the Edges
Army’s offensive line has played outstanding football this season, but we saw against Notre Dame — and to a lesser extent, against UTSA — that defenses can stymie this Army offense if they can beat enough blocks on the outside. This happens in two ways, either by beating blocks and snuffing out pitch plays or by coming with enough speed on backside pursuit against off-tackle runs.
Notre Dame made both of those work. UTSA beat a bunch of blocks on the outside in the first half, making pitches difficult. Air Force and Tulane both tried to work backside pursuit but didn’t typically have enough speed to blow up Army’s power running plays before they could develop.
Regardless, Army’s offense will need effective blocks outside to enable both their bread-and-butter power runs as well as the outside sweeps and pitches that will keep Navy’s defense honest. If Army can get those blocks, the rest of their offense will fall into place. They’ll run for 300+ yards and get a win in this game.
Congrats Lucas 🫡
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) December 11, 2024
The senior Offensive Tackle was recently named @CFN365 Offensive Lineman of the Year 👏👏👏 pic.twitter.com/WYlsiZxiiQ
Win the Turnover Battle
Army-Navy often comes down to game-changing turnovers. We saw this repeatedly in the second half in 2018 with Navy driving to try to take the lead. They threw an interception and then fumbled twice, setting an Army field goal then a touchdown that ultimately put the Black Knights up 17-7 late in the game. Similar results happened in 2020, and that led to Army’s first shutout against the Mids since 1969. In 2022, then plebe Noah Short blocked a punt that Jabril Williams then returned for a touchdown to give Army a crucial early lead in a game where they struggled to manufacture anything like consistent offense throughout most the game. And then last year, we saw it when then-yearling LB Kalib Fortner stripped Navy QB Tai Lavatai and returned the fumble to take Army up, 17-3, late in the second half.
The team that takes better care of the football usually wins this game. That’s always true, of course, but it’s doubly true in Army-Navy where the games are shortened and possessions reduced by the nature of these offenses.
Army can win this game by taking care of the football and forcing turnovers on defense, especially down in the red zone. This is the same strategy they’ve used all season. They need to use it again this week to BEAT NAVY!
Final Thoughts
Army has scored early and thereby taken early control of damn-near every game they’ve been in this season. They struggled against Notre Dame, and UTSA kept that game close by playing excellent rushing defense through the first half. Other than that, this Army Team has smoked everyone all season long.
We know what this needs to look like. Now we just need the Black Knights to execute the way they have all season.
Your Need to Know for America's Game on Saturday!#GoArmy x #BeatNavy pic.twitter.com/nNR7xNqOwT
— Army Football (@ArmyWP_Football) December 11, 2024
The good news is that this team appears to be peaking at the right time. They played their best game of the year in the Conference Championship, operating like a finely honed machine.
They’ve now got one more game for glory.
Go Army! BEAT NAVY!!!
Cover image via USMA Flickr: Army defeats Navy 17-11 in the 124th Army Navy Game.
