The American Conference features two monster primetime conference contests this week, starting tonight. The rest of this week’s slate means a Hell of a lot to the teams involved, especially those fighting for bowl eligibility, but it’s these first two games that will winnow down the Conference Championship field and perhaps herald a new era at the top of the conference. 

UTSA (+14) at South Florida

Tonight at 7:30 PM on ESPN

UTSA has as talented a roster as any team in the American Conference. We’ve known this since the preseason. They have a dynamic rushing attack led by one-time national rushing leader RB Robert Henry, Jr., and a hot young quarterback in Owen McCown. McCown has completed a whopping 67.5% of his passes this year and has thrown 17 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions. That’s really good. However, the Roadrunners hadn’t played up to their potential until just this past week, when they dismantled Tulane, 48-26. Worse, they’ve been actively bad at times in road games dating all the way back to last season.

The good news for Roadrunner fans comes via the reality that they can prove they’ve turned the corner this week against arguably the best team in the conference in USF. The bad news comes because they’ll have to do it at USF.

USF has an outstanding offense. They put up nearly 500 yards/game (8th) using a decidedly balanced attack that ranks near the top of the FBS in both passing and rushing yardage. USF QB Byrom Brown has been a stud all season. Dude has completed nearly 63% of his passes for damn-near 2000 yards with 17 touchdowns against just 6 picks and 13 sacks. He also leads his team in rushing with 120 carries for almost 600 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. This man can do it all! Brown’s running sets up a deadly read-option running game with every back on the roster averaging at least 5.1 yards/carry and lead RB Sam Franklin hitting *7.1*.

UTSA’s rushing defense has been literally average this season. They’ve given up about 150 rushing yards/game (74th) on right at 4.2 yards/carry. Teams have been a lot more successful throwing at them, but last week, they turned that into a strength and forced three interceptions against Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff.

If the Roadrunners can somehow slow USF’s rushing attack, they have a real shot at keeping up on the scoreboard. South Florida’s defense hasn’t been great this season, and they’ve been actively suspect against good passing attacks. McCown has been accurate enough to make that work, but he’s probably not going to win a track meet against Byrom Brown.

With the conference stacked at the top of the standings, USF can hardly afford a letdown game. But UTSA has the talent to pull an upset if they can only play up to their considerable abilities.

Opportunity awaits.#ComeToTheBay | #StayInTheBay pic.twitter.com/i5PXjoSbBo

— USF Football (@USFFootball) November 6, 2025

Tulane (+3.5) at Memphis

Friday at 9:00 pm ET on ESPN

Tulane at Memphis has become the American Conference’s marquee match-up over the last few years. These have been the two best teams, they typically have the two best rosters, and the winner of this game often hosts the American Conference Championship Game.

It’s different this year because every team in the conference has a conference loss. Memphis might have the best team, but they fell into a trap on the road at UAB a couple of weeks ago in one of the most shocking upsets in all of college football. Similarly, Tulane had beaten the brakes off of Northwestern and Duke and survived a home scare against their personal bogeyman Army, but they let UTSA damn-near wreck their season just this past Thursday. So while the winner of this game might still host the American Conference Championship, friends, the loser is probably out. 

Given that East Carolina, North Texas, South Florida, and Navy all have just one conference loss apiece, this season looks very likely to see a changing of the guard at the top of the league. No one can afford a slip, most especially not these two teams who’ve been expecting to compete for the conference title.

We have two outstanding teams here. Both have excellent rushing attacks, talented, high-leverage quarterbacks, and at least solid defenses. Both teams also have good-looking Power 4 wins and solid arguments in their favor for a spot in the College Football Playoff. And they’ll play a de facto conference championship playoff game tomorrow night in prime time.

If you’re not fired up for that, we can’t help you. This is college football at its finest.

Darkness falls ⚫#ALLIN | #GoTigersGo pic.twitter.com/nYsKU3pvI3

— Memphis Football (@MemphisFB) November 5, 2025

Other Conference Contests

UAB (+2.5) at Rice

Rice currently stands 4-5 with games against North Texas and at South Florida remaining. A win this week at home against UAB gives them a puncher’s chance to make a bowl game given that they’ll then face a UNT team with an at best suspect rushing defense.

Charlotte (+28.5) at East Carolina

The 49ers’ misery tour continues this week with a trip to face arguably the most improved team in the entire conference. East Carolina doesn’t have a strong enough resume to make the Playoff, but they still have every chance to make it into the Conference Championship Game.

Tulsa (+3.5) at Florida Atlantic

Both teams can technically still make a bowl game if they get hot right now. FAU has the easier path given that they already have three wins. However, Tulsa will face easier competition. Alas, this game’s loser is pretty much cooked.

Navy (+26.5) at #10 Notre Dame

This game looked a lot more appealing before North Texas ran for 190 yards and four rushing touchdowns against a tired-looking Navy defense. As things stand, however, this will be one for the hardcore fans of this particular rivalry. 

It’s too bad that the Mids have to play Notre Dame in November. They’d have stood a better chance and had much better pregame press had they caught the Irish earlier in the season. As Army fans know all too well, the Irish will have had time to fully integrate their transfers by now and will have started peaking for the Playoff.

A Note About Betting Lines

AFF always lists lines against their direction of movement. For example, Sam Houston State opened (+9.5) on the road at Western Kentucky in Week 1. That line then slid to SHS (+10). Since the latter is obviously a better bet, we listed it on SHS’s side. WKU (-9.5) might be another way to list those same odds, but given the choice, you’d rather bet against the direction of movement.

Note that we do not encourage you to gamble. In fact, most of the AFF Crew does not bet on sports. However, sports betting lines provide such a quick and easy shorthand to express overall expectations for various contests that we refer to their implied math all too frequently.

Final Thoughts

This week’s American Conference slate might not look quite as tantalizing as last week’s, but we’ve still got a couple of super high leverage contests plus a handful of games that mean a Hell of a lot to their respective fanbases. And, of course, this is before we consider Temple at Army, which should be a barnburner all its own.

Enjoy the games this weekend, friends, and let us know what you’re watching.

Go Army! Beat Temple!!!