We’re about three weeks out from the start of Army Football’s season. It’s time to talk about the Black Knights’ opponents!
Unfortunately, friends, previewing these games has gotten a lot more challenging since the advent of the Transfer Portal. Almost every team in college football has tons and tons of new players, and there’s just no way to know how these teams will come together through the season’s early going. We’ll do the best we can, but please realize that until we actually see most of these teams play, our notes will provide at best a loose guide to overall expectations.
Army Black Knights
2024 Record: 12-2, Won the American Conference, Beat La. Tech in the Independence Bowl
SP+: -0.6 (67th)
FPI: -7.4 (96th)
Massey: 63rd overall; Offense 80th, Defense 43rd
Army Football had most of a dream season last year behind an outstanding offensive line and arguably the best quarterback in modern Army Football history in Bryson Daily. Though the offense made most of the headlines, this team also outperformed on defense, creating tons of turnovers and fielding one of the nation’s stingiest scoring defenses.
The rankings systems universally predict great things again for Army’s defense, but they’re mostly less sanguine about the offense. This is because the Black Knights have defensive starters returning at every level, but on offense they’ll need to find a new quarterback, a new featured running back, new wide receivers and tight ends, and some starters along the exterior offensive line to compliment their returning studs at center and guard.
If you’re Army, it helps a lot when your interior O-Line is arguably the best part of your team. However, the Black Knights will not replace QB Bryson Daily one-for-one with “the next man up”. They need an actual gamer to step up and take command if they hope to have another standout season.
Projected Betting Line: College Football News set the season win total at Over/Under 7.5.
Pics from Army Football Practice, August 7, 2025, via Lynn Fern Photography. We’ve got the full gallery up on our Patreon page.
First Quarter Preview
We’ll go through this over the next few weeks, three games at a time.
Week 1: Tarleton State Texans
2024 Record: 10-4; Won the United Athletic Conference; Beat Drake in the first round of the FCS Playoffs
SP+: N/A
FPI: N/A
Massey: 163rd overall; Offense 159th, Defense 176th
Hero Sports ranks Tarleton State 6th in their overall FCS rankings. Stats Perform has them 10th. The team returns All-Conference QB Victor Gabalis plus eleven of its top twelve defensive players from last season. That is a lot of continuity! Assuming they can replace their top two receivers and their star running back, this should be a potent offensive attack alongside an experienced defense. Moreover, this Army game will be Tarleton State’s second. They open on the road at Portland State in Week 0. So this team will have a chance to gel before they come to Michie Stadium in Week 1.
Forget the rankings. This should be quite a compelling home opener. Sure, Army should win. However, Hero Sports makes this one of the most likely FCS-FBS upsets of the season. If the Black Knights get off on the wrong foot or just take more than the usual injuries in camp, they could easily wind up dropping this game.
Projected Betting Line: We can’t use SP+ to project this line, but Massey’s projection makes it Army (-28).
Week 2: at Kansas State
2024 Record: 9-4; Beat Rutgers in the Rate Bowl
SP+: +15.6 (18th)
FPI: +10.8 (21st)
Massey: 15th overall; Offense 14th, Defense 24th
This will be a tough match-up. The Black Knights travel to Kansas for a 7:00 pm start against a team that will have already played in two early-season games and therefore have had more chance than usual to figure out how to integrate their new transfers into their overall team chemistry. K-State opens in Ireland against their secondary rival, in-conference foe Iowa State, before hosting North Dakota for an FCS get-right game. They then face Army in what their staff no-doubt feels will be a second out-of-conference get-right game. Moreover, both SP+ and FPI have K-State in the Top 25, and the just-released preseason Coaches Poll puts them at #20.
This is a team with no obvious weaknesses. The Black Knights will have a chance if they can force some turnovers. Beyond that, however, this looks like a decidedly tough match-up.
Projected Betting Line: Army (+19)
Week 3: Bye
This bye comes at a key time. The team will be slowly but surely shaking off their camp injuries, and they’ll likely also have some guys banged up from the K-State game, too. The Black Knights will want to refocus and regain the initiative heading into conference play. This will be the week for that, and they might just need it.
Week 4: North Texas
2024 Record: 6-7; Lost to Texas State in the First Responder Bowl
SP+: -7.2 (92nd)
FPI: -9.5 (105th)
Massey: 108th overall; Offense 78th, Defense 125th
These projections can sometimes fall apart in the details, and this is one of those times. Every projection service has UNT’s offense well ahead of its defense — folks expect the Mean Green to be objectively good on offense — but then the Athletic rated every projected FBS starting quarterback, and UNT projected starter Reese Poffenbarger ranks 115th.
Who are the Mean Green without a standout quarterback?
No one expects UNT to be particularly strong on defense, and if they struggle on offense, too, well… This looks like a decidedly winnable game at home, especially for a hungry team coming off a bye.
Projected Betting Line: Army (-9.5)
Sights and sounds of fall camp 🔊⛺️#GMG🦅 | @Rhinobldg pic.twitter.com/CeJlb9Pr1g
— UNT Football (@MeanGreenFB) August 6, 2025
Final Thoughts
Midway through last season, I thought that Lehigh would’ve finished middle of the pack had they played in the American Conference in 2024, an opinion that the Mountainhawks validated to a certain extent by winning a share of the Patriot League Championship, making it into the FCS Playoffs, and then winning a Playoff game against Richmond. Granted, Army didn’t exactly struggle in last year’s opener, but the game stayed tied through the first quarter and was still relatively close at the half. It looked quite a bit closer in person than it did on paper, at least for a while.
Friends, Tarleton State looks like an astronomically better team this year than Lehigh was last year, and Army probably won’t be as good. So while we don’t necessarily know that the Black Knights will be on Upset Alert for Week 1, their margin for error in the early going this season looks quite a bit slimmer than it was last season. Add in some lingering injuries, a new quarterback, and uncertainty along the exterior offensive line, and I’m telling you, an 0-2 start looks all too possible. Not likely, perhaps, but well within the realm of preseason pessimism if the team makes too many Week 1 mistakes.
All of this makes this year’s North Texas game perhaps the most important early season game in recent memory. Regardless of how they start, the Black Knights will have a bye week followed by quite a favorable home match-up to get-right before they head into the heart of American Conference play. If the Black Knights can start strong against their conference opponents, all of their goals for the season will remain distinctly within reach. From where we’re sitting right now in early August, that’s about all we can ask.
Go Army! Beat Tarleton State!!!
